Population, planning and school provision: It’s high time for Coburg

Currently in Melbourne many middle ring suburbs have community campaigns calling for reinstatement of government school provision. The suburbs include – Richmond, Kingsville-Yarraville-Seddon, Oakleigh, Coburg, Prahran and a campaign for two schools for Port Phillip. 

A graph made using the Property Council’s new tool, Our Nation, shows just how many new class rooms will be needed in Melbourne to cope with projected increased numbers by 2021 – enough to make any State Government treasurer blanch. The suburbs needing schools now are generally those which have experienced school closures followed by increased numbers of school aged children as a result of increased births, suburb life cycle and an influx of first home buyers and young families moving a bit further out from the inner city.

Along with the above population factors some middle ring suburbs are experiencing urban renewal with plans and capacity for more. A recent Property Council Report Making the Numbers Stack Up: a study into major residential urban renewal in Melbourne has highlighted Coburg as being the only suburb in the top 20 for numbers of all three new housing types. 


Coburg Hill – the redevelopment of the old Kodak site is coming along nicely and was launched by State Government big guns like the Premier and Planning Minister.In a recent Moreland Leader article, the Moreland Council CEO Peter Brown said of the Coburg Initiative urban renewal project -“All the fundamentals are there. Even when we talk to the State Government they say of all the urban redevelopments around Melbourne this is probably as good as you’re going to get”.

HSC argue, with full council support, that the one fundamental missing is a high school which is essential for the economic viability of urban renewal in this designated activity area. If the State government back urban renewal in our area they should also back the provision of essential social infrastructure. Local school provision not only benefits economic development it is positive for community development, social development, well being, health and the environment. Of all morning peak hour car trips, 17% are parents taking children to school according to a recent report from the Vic Parliamentary Enquiry into Environmental Design and Public Health and the cost of congestion is set to double by 2010. HSC say planning for local school provision which enables active transport is the solution.

Recently the Minister for Education Hon Martin Dixon said on ABC radio that of all the areas in Melbourne needing a school Coburg is the most progressed. Since September 2008 Community advocacy group High School for Coburg (HSC) has been calling for the reinstatement of junior secondary provision in Coburg. HSC’s own report More Local Primary School – Fewer Secondary Options  shows very big increases in primary school enrolments in the area, for example a 50% increase Prep enrolments in the four years to 2012.

HSC await the census data with interest as one anomaly they cite is the low growth in numbers for primary school aged children in id forecast projections for Coburg North for instance compared with the actual primary enrolment increases at the local schools. Cate from HSC wonders if this is because it is hard to capture families who migrate into suburbs with children as they aren’t picked up in birth data for the area.

The group has put together this data map using the id website which shows the most secondary school aged persons in Darebin and Moreland are in Preston and Coburg –suburbs which do not have any Years 7-9 co-ed school provision. Two state governments have commissioned two demographic reports by consultants Spatial Vision on a study area roughly equating with the Moreland plus Darebin municipalities.
The 2012 report, with the added benefit of Darebin Council now being on board with id forecast showed even bigger projections than the 2010 report and found an immediate shortfall in spaces for years 7 to 9.

The Education Minister has this report and DEECD recommendations before him now and is expected to make a decision in the near future.

HSC say it would be a good idea for the Planning Minister to have a chat with him.

Cross posted on the .idblog here.

Coburg Provision Review handed to Minister Dixon

THERE IS NO HIDING FROM THE NUMBERS IN THE EDUCATION BLACK HOLE

A process looking at ways to manage the shortfall highlighted in the 2010 Spatial Vision Report  was announced in Jan 2011. Nothing happened. This was in part apparently due to DEECD re-structure. The 2010 Spatial Vision report was then deemed too old and a new process, The Coburg Provision Review was established in Oct 2011.

Along with DEECD brief, Minister Dixon was given:

• A "re-freshed' Spatial Vision Report. 
• Independent consultation with 23 schools. In Feb 2012, principals and school council presidents were asked about the provision issue in general and the HSC proposal to have junior provision at the Coburg Senior High site. 
• High School for Coburg (HSC) response to Spatial Vision report. At the end of the process, HSC were invited to write a response to the Spatial Vision Review 2012. (This was prepared at short notice by two mums in four days hence the typos).

We share our report with you here. The main points are:

• Much bigger numbers than the 2010 report. 
• Significant and immediate provisions shortfall, therefore HSC expects immediate provision planning. 
• The recommendation in the 2010 report was to manage the shortfall from 2016. The shortfall number for 2016 in the old report was already exceeded significantly in 2011 in the new report, so to be consistent the DEECD recommendation should be to manage the shortfall immediately. 
• Report states the pressure will be on the middle and southern schools. There are no open entry state secondary schools in the middle - Pascoe Vale, Coburg, Preston etc and southern schools are full

The minister was aware of the Spatial Vision report findings well before the budget so it is disappointing to see there has been no allocation for provision planning. However, budget allocation or not there is no hiding from the numbers. It is worth noting that the three previous consultant reports, including two Spatial Vision reports, and indeed the whole Coburg Provision Review, occurred without budget announcements. What is needed now is for Minister Dixon to make the decision to utilise the Coburg Senior High site as the most sensible option for managing the demonstrated shortfall in Year 7-9 provision.This will give our community some much needed certainty and enable the DEECD to begin implemantion planning as a continuation of the work already done.

The community, including the twelve schools who formally support HSC, are ready to be part of the solution.

HSC Response to 2012 Spatial Vision Report

NORTH or SOUTH OF THE RIVER?

Let's compare the outcomes.

Number of secondary aged persons at 2012 (id forecast) 

• COBURG suburb alone: 1,613 - High school closed 2004.......
• ALBERT PARK-MIDDLE PARK: 400 - School closed 2006 -already re-opened and full thus highlight the demand in inner suburbs for public education. (Port Phillip Council looking at the need for a second.)
• PRAHRAN: 372 - $200,000 in Budget to study sites (seemingly skipping the process to identify need, which the Coburg community has endured for years)

In other words Coburg has over four times the number of high school aged kids in Albert Park (and 40 times the growth) and Prahran.but still no sign of a high school.

More local primary school children - Fewer secondary school options

On Wednesday 14 September 2011, at a meeting with the Partnerships Division of the DEECD Office for Government Schools and High School for Coburg (HSC), the DEECD Northern Region stated that “The numbers at local primary schools have not increased by much.”

HSC spent the next two weeks phoning local schools to update our 2009 work which showed the wave of children coming through local primary schools.

This is what we found: 

• Nearly all schools called have roughly 100% more children in Prep than grade 6 
• The number of children enrolled in Prep at ten local schools increased by 48% from 2008 to 2011
• Every school except the two capped schools showed an increase in Prep enrolments
• This increase in Prep enrolments from 2008 to 2011 was close to 200 children 
• Total enrolment at nine local primary schools has increased by 25% from 2008 to 
• The increase in total enrolments was more than 500 children 

This information has been collated into a report - High School for Coburg Interim Schools Data Collection Report, October 2011 which you can read by clicking on the link. 

In January 2011 the General Manager of the Partnerships Division of the Office for Government School Education, DEECD wrote to HSC at the behest of Minister Dixon.(read letter here). This letter outlined the work which would be done throughout 2011 to look at secondary provision options in Coburg.

HSC believe that this year the Partnerships Division came to the view that HSC have a very strong case and that the Coburg Senior High site is the best provision option but it has been hard to move the process forward, partly due to departmental restructures and the turnover of DEECD managerial staff.

After a call from the Minister's advisor and the subsequent meeting with the DEECD Partnerships Division and the Northern Region, it became apparent that there has been no formal action in the year since the Spatial Vision Report came out showing the significant secondary education provision shortfall in Coburg. Having effectively sat on the report for a year the DEECD has said the report is a bit old now and we could begin a new process based around waiting for yet more numbers.

HSC and many other key people involved in the Spatial Vision Report's inception say "What more evidence is needed?"

HSC have strongly recommended that the next action be to look at provision options -as per the January letter - in particular the Coburg Senior High site favoured by roughly two thirds of respondents to our survey in May this year. Unhappily we find ourselves temporarily back having the numbers argument but not surprisingly HSC's latest on-the-ground data gathering effort only adds to the avalanche of evidence for the affirmative!

Opinion Ignored

by Cate Hall

This is HSC's response to the Minister for Education, Bronwyn Pike's comments in the Moreland Leader (Pike says Coburg School may not be used - Moreland Leader - 01/02/2010). An edited version was published in the letters section of the Moreland leader on 08/02/2010.

While High School for Coburg (HSC) thanks Minister for Education Bronwyn Pike for agreeing to MP Christine Campbell's call to set up a taskforce to look at state secondary education provision for Coburg, West Preston and surrounds, we strongly disagree with her comments in the Moreland Leader Monday 1 February 2010. Her obvious bias makes it imperative that this taskforce has an independent chairperson to present fair and reasonable results without outside influence. 

Minister Pike says a Coburg High "may not be used” – she has obviously chosen to ignore the HSC parental attitudes and intentions survey results which show 96% of respondents would send their children to a Coburg High. She also says Coburg had a high school which parents chose not to send their children to.That is a complex story of school closures and amalgamations and it is arguable that some schools did not get the extra support required from the very beginning. 

It is time to look to the future and provide valid options, not dredge up the past.The community is no longer willing to accept Coburg’s place in the education department’s too hard basket. They do not want to move suburbs or send their children far away to attend high school and many cannot afford this option .Equitable access to education is what’s required. 

Minister Pike is fond of saying “it takes a village to raise a child" - one of the basic requirements of the village is a secondary school, and for this wonderfully diverse community it would be a hub, enhancing connectivity and sustainable development. Minister Pike refers to "early analysis" showing greater growth in student numbers in the Brunswick area than the Coburg area. That is either disingenuous or she is getting bad advice.

Her comments are at odds with the recent DPCD and Moreland Council projections showing much greater numbers of young people in the Coburg area right now and much greater expected growth in Coburg into the future. For example in the 10-14 yr age group there are roughly twice as many in the Coburg Statistical Local Area (SLA) ( 2,671 children ) than the  Brunswick SLA. For 15 -19 yr olds Brunswick SLA decreases long term by 277  while Coburg's numbers grow by 681.* 

And why is Minister Pike talking about Coburg and Brunswick numbers around  the launch of Glenroy and Fawkner re-branded schools?  Is it to justify the fact that the spending on secondary education in Moreland is occurring in the north and in Brunswick in spite of the greatest number of young people being in the Coburg area where there isn't even one open entry state high school? 

HSC ask Minister Pike to make this “early analysis" available to the public, along with other data that we have repeatedly asked the department for, so that the community can see the whole picture.We have 22 primary schools, the greatest number by far of young children in Moreland now and into the future and no open entry state high school, what's the story?

*A visual representation of the DPCD statistics can be seen here. The raw data was sourced from the DPCD site, scroll down to the end of the page and click on detailed data files.

The numbers stack up so where is the planning for a High School for Coburg?

by Darren Saffin
The suburbs of Coburg and Coburg North meet the new Precinct Structure Plan guidelines for outer suburban developments announced by The Hon Minister for Planning Justin Madden MP.*

The suburbs have a combined population of over 30,800 (2006 ABS Census) not to mention the other suburbs in any new state secondary school catchment zone. The obvious difference is Coburg is not an outer suburban development, but Coburg has the greatest population growth in children of all suburbs in Moreland (iD Forecast population projections) and has the Coburg Initiative, Pentridge Prison development and old Kodak factory site development. All of which mean the continued growth of secondary school age children and a very real lack of local community options for secondary school education – an education blackhole.

Public consultation has begun for the development of the former Maribyrnong Defence Site, which Justin Madden has already said will contain schools. Meanwhile in Alphington, the Government is set to negotiate with developers to buy land to build a local government secondary school. These are both commendable actions. Where is the same consideration for Coburg and surrounds which have a great need already and more growth forecast? It is hard not to be cynical with a state election coming up and seeing the safest Labour seat in Melbourne being neglected while vote buying happens around it.

*The new Precinct Structure Plan guidelines for outer suburban developments state that for populations up to 30,000 the plan should provide space for a government secondary school. See Growth Areas Authority - Part Two - Page 31 - Key Principles for Designing Integrated Community Facilities.

City of Moreland birthrates continue to rise

Moreland Birth rates went up again in this last financial year by 1.2% (from 2008). According to Robyn Mitchell at the City of Moreland,

This means birth rates have increased by 21.35% since 2001. Talking to other municipalities around Melbourne it seems this has been a bit of a trend - and if that is the case, it means the ability of surrounding municipalities to take Moreland's high school overflow is going to be severely compromised.

According to the  Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD) "Suburbs in time " for Coburg, in 2006, 0-4 yr olds were almost back at the level they were in the 1980's when there were many more schools in the area. As shown below, births have continued to rise since 2006 with Coburg having highest birth rate in Moreland.





There has also been a big increase in tertiary educated residents, these in large part are the families who do not want to have to migrate out due to the lack of a state secondary school (as has been the pattern in these parts to date) because they value this community. There has also been a decrease in families who would classify themselves as religious, leading to increase in demand for state education.

Large numbers of young people in Coburg Statistical Local Area (SLA) are hard to refute now given the similarity between Moreland's ID projections and the DPCD projections.West Preston numbers can be added to the Coburg SLA numbers for the full picture.

West Preston by Census Collection Districts, drawn from Australian Bureau of Statistics CDATA.

Age Group	Males	Females	Total
0-4 years	687	647	1334
5-9 years	587	496	1083
10-14 years	505	460	965
15-19 years	499	480	979
0-19 years	2965	2083	4361

The Education Department count Newlands Primary which is actually in West Preston but not Bell Primary or Preston West. HSC argue strongly for these to be included in any analysis of the need for a high school in Coburg. Furthermore if Newlands Primary is included then the population of the suburb surrounding should also be taken in to account in demographic analysis, not just the portion attending from Moreland. Conversely, the Darebin schools mentioned above are attended by many Coburg children so should be included in school enrolment data being considered regarding the need for a high school in Coburg.

The need and demand for a quality state open entry high school for the local community which is the Coburg SLA plus West Preston is here now and will definitely be sustained into the future.

September update

Dear High School for Coburg Supporters,
Thank you for your support and assistance through the last busy month. There are currently over 1,500 supporters and together we are continuing to drive the goal of an open entry state secondary school for Coburg and surrounding areas.

New numbers show need for school
The good news is that last week the Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD) released new population projections for Melbourne which support Moreland City Council's (MCC) own forecasts.
Both sets of numbers show most growth in the suburb of Coburg. Both are at odds with the Northern Region Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD) projections which show growth mainly in the north of Moreland and much less over all.
Once more we see valid population projections supporting the need for a High School for Coburg. Where are the plans for one?
In the last week, the Government has been seen negotiating to build a school in a new housing development in Alphington. The same happened in Maribyrnong earlier this year.
Coburg demands the same planning and respect for our children. Email the Minister for Education, Bronwyn Pike and tell her what you think - bronwyn.pike@parliament.vic.gov.au

Meeting with DEECD and Christine Campbell
HSC attended the first of a series of meetings with Northern Region DEECD, Christine Campbell MP, school Principals and Moreland City Council.
Christine reiterated her call for Year 7 intake in 2011 at the Coburg Senior High School.
Everyone present also explained the level of public demand for a high school and the high numbers of families leaving or considering leaving the area (or have left already) because there is no school.
To help reinforce that case to the Department of Education:
• If you are in this situation (or know someone who is) and are willing to have your details recorded, please email us at – highschool4coburg@gmail.com
• Please fill in our online survey by the end of the September school holidays. We are getting very strong results but the more the better!

Coburg misses out on spending on secondary schools

In the Moreland Leader was mention of huge spending planned for Box Forest and Fawkner secondary schools including new subsidised uniforms. There is also a push for spending at Brunswick Secondary College to cater for more students.
This contrasts starkly with NO planning or spending on secondary education in Coburg.
Make your voice heard on this important issue. Email the Minister for Education, Bronwyn Pike and tell her we deserve better - bronwyn.pike@parliament.vic.gov.au
Also let your local member know how you feel and make sure we get a local high school:
Christine Campbell, Member for Pascoe Vale - christine.campbell@parliament.vic.gov.au
Carlo Carli, Member for Brunswick - carlo.carli@parliament.vic.gov.au
Robin Scott, Member for Preston - robin.scott@parliament.vic.gov.au

Email us: highschool4coburg@gmail.com
Call us:

Denis Matson JP: 0419 747 748

Cate Hall: 9354 3053

Morena Milani: 9025 0839

Councillor Update from High School for Coburg

This is the text of an email sent by Catherine Hall to the Moreland Council on 23/08/09

Dear Mayor and councillors,

Thank you to councillors John Kavanagh, Toby Archer and Kathleen Mathews-Ward and to Barry Hahn for attending HSC Q&A on 19 Aug. Special thanks to Cr.Oscar Yildez for being a panelist on the night. Apologies if we missed any other councillors.

On being informed councillors are to have a meeting with Wayne Craig from the education department Northern Region we thought it best to give you a quick update.

Families supporting HSC 1,250

1)NUMBERS DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MORELAND COUNCIL AND ED. DEPT.
High School for Coburg (HSC) have had two meetings with the department to date. At the July one with Kyrs Hendrickson and Peter Enright it soon became apparent that their numbers were very different to council's projections. ID who did council's, predict the only significant growth in youth demographic is going to occur in Coburg, which already has the greatest number of young people in Moreland. The department's demographers say the growth is going to be in the north of Moreland and don't predict anywhere near the same growth. HSC directed them to Robyn Mitchell, council research officer to verify the numbers we are using and they agreed to meet us again and review the discrepancy. When we met with them on 17 Aug we reiterated that ID have the best record for projecting accurately compared with ABS and DSE and are the only company that comes to council to do local research for their projections. The department response was to say that ID come and see what council want and gear the results that way because they want the work.

Apart from being a slur on ID and indirectly, the council this is a flawed supposition because why would council want inflated projections? This would entail expensive preparation for provision of services that aren't required. Also it doesn't explain the excellent record ID have for accuracy and the fact that 95% of councils use them.Example of projections done by the dept demographers: Moreland population will increase by 4,000 by 2031.This is patently extremely underestimated because there are 16,000 new homes estimated to be built in that time.

We say the numbers are here in the Coburg area now and even more so into the future.

2) EMPTY SEATS AT FAR AWAY SCHOOLS
HSC applauds work being done at Box Forest and Fawkner high schools to increase profile and enrolments and this should help enrich those communities however indicating that there are spaces at those far away schools is not a blow to the campaign for a high school for this community. I imagine there are also plenty of spaces at the Coburg Senior High site.

3) BRUNSWICK VERSUS COBURG??
There has been an idea put forward from a certain political quarter that the HSC campaign will work against Brunswick high school's submission for funding to enable 150 extra places.We do not wish to get into an either/or scenario but if forced into that corner, I will make a very big noise about the numbers for high school aged young people below:

12 -17 year olds in 2006 /2016 /2031.

The 2006 number is indisputable ABS, the next two are ID forecast projections.

Brunswick 739 / 807 / 883
Coburg 1,509 / 1,795 / 2,020

4) PRESTON WEST PRIMARY
This school is very big, has just decided they want to cap preps at 100 and the school council has voted in support of HSC. The department do not include it in their calculations but it is part of this community needing a high school. Coburg West Primary, which is beyond capacity, capped and zoned is the most represented school in HSC working party and furnished us with 100's of supporters at their fete. Brunswick East Primary parents are also big supporters and Carlo Carli has said that the increases in Brunswick primary enrolments are mainly Coburg families.

This is to illustrate to you the large area we represent which contains families considering moving away because their community has no high school. We will be able to show you evidence of that once our survey has been input and analysed and we thank council for assisting with that process.

Kind Regards and apologies for lengthy email,
Catherine Hall
HSC

Policy background to the HSC story

by Catherine Hall

The suburb of Coburg is at the epicentre of a big black hole with regards to inclusive, comprehensive secondary education. The northern metropolitan region contains 50% of the lowest socio-economic status (SES) government schools in Melbourne and Moreland has been ranked 7 in the top 10 disadvantaged suburbs. We know that successive government policies have resulted in a huge divide between rich and poor schools (see Stephen Lamb, School reform and Inequality in Urban Australia: A Case of Residualizing the Poor,2007)

The chart below shows how federal funding to private schools (the dark line) has been disproportionately greater than federal funding to government schools.


Figure 1: Commonwealth Government Recurrent Expenditure on Government and Private Schools: 1995-2004 ($’000,000)(see Stephen Lamb, 2007 page7)

Exposure to the free market has resulted in poor schools becoming small schools, further increasing the disadvantage. This needs to be turned around, with funding targeted where it is need most. The graph below shows the declining enrolments in poorer schools.



Figure 2: Changes in Mean School Enrolments, 1980-2004, by SES (quintile): Melbourne Secondary Schools with Enrolments in Every Year (see Stephen Lamb, 2007 page 19)


A recent survey by the The Equality Trust comparing 20 developed countries showed that those with the greatest divide between haves and have-nots had the worst social health outcomes, for example violent crime, teenage pregnancy, obesity and levels of trust across all levels of society, even in the upper and middle class (see the The SpritLevel: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better, Richard L Wilkonson and Kate Pickett and as reported in The Age article on 20 April 2009 Shattering the myth of equality and again in The Age on 16 August 2009 Whatever Happened to the Classless Society?). According to the United Nations Development Programme, Australia is the fifth-most unequal developed country and unequal access to quality education is surely a big wedge in the equity gap. The whole community will benefit from the provision of a local, general access high school for the young people of the Coburg region.


Chris Bonnor , co-author with Jane Caro of The Stupid Country, Austalia's dismantling of public education, has shown that when a school is supported by all sectors of society, for example as happens in some remote country schools, it prospers (read Chris Bonnor at National Public Education Forum March 2009 -Schools and the Marketplace -fallacy and fallout for a description of such a school in Tumut). Closer to home, Debney Park Secondary College is an example of a school that has gone from one regarded by many as a "default school" for poor migrant families living in the nearby commission flats to a school that also attracts middle class parents, resulting in a more diverse school community and better educational outcomes for all the school's students. Read the full story of Debney Park's success here.


The High School for Coburg group believe that the families who have recently flocked to this region, including those with one or more tertiary educated parents, are very community minded and would strongly support a quality, all inclusive secondary school in Coburg in preference to crossing town for private education or moving to be closer to a public secondary school. Local state MP Christine Campbell's recent Intern's report showed 50% of grade 4 and 5 families who filled out her survey would choose a Coburg high school. We believe this school would be embraced by families from all walks of life, promoting social inclusion and providing local jobs and local spending. Reduction in car travel is also a more environmentally sustainable option. Helping to bridge the equity gap will result in better social, health and education outcomes for local students and the whole local community.

July update

by Catherine Hall

The HSC working group have been everywhere! There are now 1,200 families on the contact list, with more being added every day!!

1) Awareness Campaign = Numbers = Action = High School for Coburg !!!

This is the ongoing process of informing families in our proposed school catchment of the realities of secondary education provision in this area and what HSC are doing to improve the situation.
To this end we have:

• Obtained a Quick Response grant from Moreland City Council for printing purposes.
• Distributed HSC flyers and petitions at schools, kinders and childcare centres, resulting in increase of our support base to 1,200 families.
• Spoken at school councils and received a resolution of support from Preston West Primary School.
• Promoted the HSC Q&A evening in many school, kindergarten and childcare newsletters, placing handbills for this event in kinder/childcare pockets.
• Sought and been auspiced by Newlands Community Centre who have also assisted with printing and PR.
• Given 250 Q&A evening posters to Coburg Traders Association for distribution to their shops and also in their newsletter.
• Received a donation from a local parent of 11,000 household letterbox drop.
• Received a donation of printing and pens for the HSC Q&A evening from Coburg Officeworks.
• Catherine Hall and Chris Bonnor (by phone from Sydney) spoke on RRR radio show The Grapevine.
• Leila Alloush from Victorian Arabic Social Services was interviewed on SBS radio on the High School for Coburg issue. She promoted HSC Q&A event and encouraged parents to be active and come along.
• Morena Milani appeared in the Moreland Leader along with Chris Bonnor who will be the keynote speaker at the HSC Q&A evening.
• HSC members have also been very active writing letters to the editor of the Moreland Leader.
• There are now real estate boards in three locations for High School for Coburg in general and another for HSC Q&A evening.
• We have had several meetings with Jenny Merkus , Barry Hahn and Robyn Mitchell at Moreland City Council to discuss how council could help with information gathering and the awareness part of our campaign, which they felt was very important.

2) Political Campaign

• We have attended Moreland City Council meetings and obtained formal support for the High School for Coburg campaign.
• We have sourced recent population and household projections by forecast id which were commissioned by Moreland council and have discussed analysis of those figures with a Moreland council research officer.
• HSC representatives attended the Coburg Initiative design workshop to talk about need for a high school in Coburg and discuss importance of considering this in planning.
• We have spoken to several local ALP branches and gained formal support from all.
• We have met with Robin Scott, State MP for Preston further to meeting him last year to get help with West Preston population statistics.
• There have been meetings with Justin Madden's chief of staff, Martin Dixon, Shadow Minister for education, Jenny Mikakos, Member for Northern Metro region Legislative council and Martin Ferguson, Federal Member for Batman.
• We have had ongoing communications with Kelvin Thomson, Federal MP for Wills who established a working party around the HSC issue which several of our group attended.
• Christine Campbell, State Member for Pascoe Vale attended an HSC meeting.
• As a result of HSC action within the local ALP branch, a motion was passed unopposed at ALP State Conference:

  This ALP State Conference therefore calls on the State Government to conduct an urgent review of the current and future provision of secondary schools in the Northern Region of Melbourne and to make specific provision from both a planning and financial perspective for the establishment of open entry public secondary schools with particular reference to Coburg and its surrounding suburbs.

  
  
• HSC called for Carlo Carli and Christine Campbell to chair an open committee which would assess the case for a high school in Coburg.
• We received a letter to Catherine Hall from Federal Education Minister, Bronwyn
  Pike. This letter is interesting because it adds Thornbury High School to the list of schools our area could choose from - but it is too far away. She also mentions for the first time the threshold requirement of 1000-1100 pupils long-term, which is easily achievable going by council projections, for a new school and that Brunswick Secondary College did not get funding for new work which would have allowed for extra places>

3) Education Department

• Morena Milani, Catherine Hall and Peter Sharples met with Krystyn Hendrickson and Peter Enright from the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, Northern Metro Region .We discussed our statistics work and the projections commissioned by Moreland City Council. While the ID forecasts show Coburg as the only suburb in Moreland with significant growth in youth demographic ,the department's figures show growth only in the north. Krys and Peter agreed to discuss the ID work with council and meet with us again on 5th of August when they will also have projected numbers from the primary schools.

Watch this space!

Population Statistics for Moreland and Coburg

These figures are based on 1996, 2001 & 2006 ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics Census: Moreland (C) - Coburg Statistical Local Area (SLA)



Primary School Statistics
ABS Coburg SLA data shows that the number of children entering year 7 are as follows;
2007 - 539
2010 - 529 (Maternal Child Forecast)
2018 - 755 (Maternal Child Forecast)

New Projections by “ID Demographics” for Moreland City Council

Area	Age Group	2006	2031	Variance	% Increase
Coburg suburb	12-17yp	1509	2020	511	33.86%
City of Moreland	12-17yo	8203	9343	1134	50% in Coburg alone
Coburg SLA	12-17yo	3244	3849	605	53% of total Moreland increase
Coburg SLA	5-11yo	4026	4824	798	66% of total Moreland increase

For Coburg Statistical Local Area (SLA)
This area is equivalent to HSC’s proposed catchment area, minus West Preston (which has the highest number of young people and greatest expected increase in Darebin).

Estimates have been provided by Moreland City Council's research department and the Moreland population forecasts for different service ages can be viewed here . To view the population forecasts for Coburg, go here.

It is important to note that Coburg is the only suburb in Moreland with any significant growth in the youth demographic. Figures clearly show the increase in young people in Coburg will be sustained.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Information

There are some interesting points to consider based on Australian Bureau of Statistics figures relating to the area shown in the attached map (Moreland - Coburg).















Some key points to note are:

• There has been a 40.28% increase in children attending pre-school between 2006 & 2001 census. This percentage equates to 234 students which may not sound like much, but that is basically the number of students in total at a medium sized primary school. Which may explain why some primary schools in the area are turning children away.
• There has been a 13.6% increase in the number of children attending non-government primary schools (excluding Catholic schools).
• There has been a 10.82% increase in the number of children (0-4) age group between 2006 & 2001 Census (equates to 312 students).
• There has been a 4.61% increase in the number of children (10-14) age group between 2006 & 2001 Census (equates to 115 students) .
• ABS data shows approximately 539 students would be looking for entry into high school within this area (Aged 12) in 2006 (nb: This does not include those areas in Darebin, Brunswick etc). 529 students would be looking for placements in 2010
• 755 students would be looking for placements in 2018 (give or take all the families that decide to leave prior to this occurring).

In terms of dwellings, the number of "separate houses" remains fairly static, with increases in other types of properties eg. townhouses, flats/units etc. Interestingly, this equates to 962 properties from 1996 - 2006 (not including the Kodak or Pentridge developments which are set to increase the number of dwellings in the area). Which doesn't replace "family home numbers" as they seem to remain static. Oversimplified this means families move out of the Coburg area when they need to access secondary schooling for their children.

Click on the link below to view Excel spreadsheet data supporting these statements in more detail.

ABS - Time Series by Age, 1996 - 2006 HSC Version